COLUMBUS — The season is almost here. Let’s get your picks.
There are surveys lower in this story to get your predictions for Ohio State’s regular season and postseason. First, let’s run through some other numbers predicting the Buckeyes’ season.
Our percent chances
You may remember when Bill and I ran through the schedule in the offseason and gave our percent chances for the Buckeyes winning each game.
Bill’s five toughest games
Indiana: Ohio State 48 percent chance to win
Texas: 49 percent
Oregon: 55 percent
USC: 70 percent
Michigan: 85 percent
Doug’s five toughest games
Texas: 50 percent
Indiana: 56 percent
Oregon: 75 percent
USC: 78 percent
Michigan: 80 percent
And our total percent chances of Ohio State going 12-0?
Bill: 5.8 percent
Doug: 10.1 percent
Those final percentages are in line with some other numbers.
ESPN FPI
According to ESPN’s explanation of its Football Power Index, it’s a power rating like Vegas would use, intended to predict the future and not measure the past. That makes it a terrible reference during the season as a measurement, for instance, of who deserves a playoff spot. But it’s OK right now.
FPI ranks Ohio State No. 1 in the nation, but because of the Buckeyes’ schedule strength, it projects Ohio State for 10.2 wins in the regular season.
It gives Ohio State a 9.2 percent chance of going undefeated, which is the fifth-best shot in the country at 12-0 behind Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Georgia and Indiana.
The formula also gives the Buckeyes a 16.9 percent chance to win the national title, which is the best in the nation.
FanDuel
The site’s betting options include the odds for teams to go undefeated.
Notre Dame has the best odds of going 12-0 at +160, followed by Texas Tech, Indiana, Miami, Oregon and Georgia. Ohio State is seventh at +650, which converts to a 13.3 percent chance of going undefeated.
The Buckeyes are +180 to win at least 11 games, which converts to a 35.7 percent chance.
They are -155 to win at least 10 games, which converts to a 60.8 percent chance.
The over-under for the Buckeyes remains at 9.5 wins, but the odds of each side are very different.
Going over the 9.5 wins is at -162, which converts to a 61.8 percent chance.
Going under the 9.5 wins is at +132, which converts to a 43.1 percent chance. (We know those two percentages don’t equal 100. Just trying to give a lay of the land on thoughts on the Buckeyes).
The Athletic CFP Predictor
This model didn’t give a percentage for 12-0, but it does have the Buckeyes at 10-2. It also lists Ohio State with a 71 percent chance to make the playoff. It also gives the Buckeyes a 14 percent chance to win it all, the best chance in the nation.
So now, what do you think?
Voted 80% on title quality confidence by way of vibes based math. I'm starting to drink the Kool aid on the offense, but I still want to see *who* emerges as WR2. I also want to see *who* become the next superstars on defense. They don't need to be Downs or Styles, but I don't think a defense whose best players are 3rd team all-B1G guys will be enough. I think there will end up being a requisite number of stars on the roster, but unlike Oregon and Texas, we are counting on more players who have not yet established themselves as that.
Richmond Steve:
This formidable offensive will cover any defensive questions. Doug, have you watched “12 Angry Men” yet?