COLUMBUS — Ohio State hasn’t lost home games in consecutive weeks since losing to USC and Illinois in the third and fourth games of the 1990 season, John Cooper’s third year in Columbus that ended with the Buckeyes at 7-4-1.
Coming off a loss to Oregon, favored by 13.5 points over a Northwestern team also playing without its starting quarterback, as Nicco Marchiol replaces the injured Aidan Chiles, the Buckeyes are trying to avoid matching Year 3 Coop.
Time for Game Theories.
Game theory from Bill
Pick: Ohio State 30, Northwestern 20
I have no idea what to expect vibes-wise from Ohio State, and I’m not expecting a juiced-up Ohio Stadium. I’m worried about a sleepy start favoring Northwestern, but part of this pick is thinking the Buckeyes come out feeding Jeremiah Smith early and often to get into an immediate rhythm.
Everyone in the Woody is acutely aware of his lack of touches for two quarters against Oregon, and I’m expecting Arthur Smith and Luke Fahey to rectify that. Smith’s season-high for catches is 12 against Illinois. He’ll get more than that this week. It will be a combination of traditional downfield catches and manufactured quick touches that make him the focal point of the attack.
The Buckeyes technically aren’t dead for the Big Ten Championship, and by extension, the College Football Playoff. But they don’t control that. What they have a better chance to impact is Smith’s chance to win the Heisman Trophy. He’s the current favorite. I expect his lead will be bigger after this week.
All of this, of course, is contingent on the offensive line playing better. I think they will, but that’s more about Northwestern’s defensive line than it is a sudden belief in OSU’s O-line to get it figured out.
Defensively, Ohio State learned some good news on Wednesday night when it was revealed that Northwestern quarterback Aidan Chiles won’t play. His backup, Nicco Marchiol, isn’t nearly as good. Matt Patricia made a few allusions to “simplifying” the defense after the struggles the past two weeks. I’m not sure exactly what that means, but one thing I’ll predict is that the Buckeyes play more four-down fronts against Northwestern. Linebacker Christian Alliegro said he believes Patricia will have some more pressure packages this week. Maybe Alliegro gets a sack or two.
Mostly, this is a moment for Ohio State to get up off the mat against a worn-down Northwestern team that hasn’t had a week off in more than two months. I don’t think the Buckeyes will play perfectly, but the end this skid and get pack in the win column.
Game theory from Doug
Pick: Ohio State 30, Northwestern 21
Ohio State’s first offensive play — Jeremiah Smith in motion, little swing pass in the flat.
Ohio State’s third offensive play — Jeremiah Smith touchdown deep shot.
Smith is second in the nation in receptions of 40 yards or more, with eight, and Ohio State has to try some, “He’s down there somewhere, Luke, just throw it,” shots in this one. It worked in the final minute against Oregon last week, when Luke Fahey chucked it up for a 57-yard gain with game out of reach. It’s worth testing early against two outside corners for Northwestern that don’t have any chance of staying with Smith. Oregon hit a 75-yard touchdown to Dakorien Moore against Northwestern when the Ducks needed it and Ohio State needs, right from the start, to get their best player heavily involved.
Northwestern’s run defense allows 4.59 yards per carry, which ranks 97th in the nation, so there might be a chance to get the OSU run game going again the way it worked against USC. But while Ryan Day said the Buckeyes need more consistent play from the offensive line, there hasn’t been anything from that group, or the running backs, that can make you certain the Buckeyes capitalize on this. With a several receivers on the injury report, the only offensive certainty to me is a bunch of JJ.
Defensively, the Buckeyes have to get lined up and aligned. Northwestern offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is going to shift formations before the snap, use motion constantly and make the Buckeyes stay sound. Should we expect them to? Not all the time. Northwestern is fifth in the Big Ten in offensive plays of 30 yards or more. But the Wildcats don’t rip off all that many monster, game-changing plays. So I’ll predict three plays of 30-40 yards — a huge hole for a running back for no reason, a wide open window in the secondary on a throw — that will make you tear your hair out. But I’m not sure any of them will be scores. And moving the ball consistently and efficiently with a backup QB should prove more difficult for Northwestern.
I think Ohio State jumps out 14-0 again, the crowd gets into it, and then the Buckeyes start blowing it. The OSU defense surrenders a couple of those big plays, and Northwestern starts clawing back. Maybe it’s 17-14 Ohio State at halftime, Northwestern drives for the go-ahead score early in the third quarter and then that guy, what’s his name, you know, No. 4 … yes, Jeremiah Smith, that’s it, breaks off another big play off a short throw and the Buckeyes do what they couldn’t do last week.
When the game turns against them, they stem the tide. They lean on their best player.
You’ll be mad at times, worried at times, frustrated often and potentially unsatisfied. But it’ll be an Ohio State win.
Game theory from subscriber Frank B. from Toledo
Pick: Ohio State 38, Northwestern 9
We can all remember watching the mighty winds wobble passes in the 2022 game against Northwestern. When the clock struck zero in that game, C.J. Stroud had 76 passing yards.
We can also all remember receiving the news that Chris Olave would not be playing in the 2020 Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern, disrupting our passing attack and leaving the Buckeyes to be carried on the back of Trey Sermon.
Here we are now, perhaps remembering where we were last Sunday refreshing Substack for updates on when Bill and Doug’s Sunday Soundoff would occur.
Perhaps too remembering how much candy was left in our Halloween bowls when Trent Mosley dashed 69 yards for a touchdown on the second play of the USC game.
Remembering.
Remembering even the single word Coach Day uttered a lot in the offseason: Legacy. A word so ingrained in the team DNA this year that the players read “Legacy: What the All Blacks Can Teach Us About the Business of Life” by James Kerr.
Saturday, Northwestern comes to The Shoe. Without generational wind gusts. Without us being a favorite anymore to seal a National Championship, let alone a Big Ten Championship.
Their arrival does mark an opportunity for these current Buckeyes to leave behind a legacy that has not been done since 2004. A legacy involving losing consecutive regular-season games, and still defeating TTUN.
That’s not nothing. Who’s to say going 3-0 in these next three games can’t lead to something?
A social media post that really resonated with me came from Adam King after the Oregon game last week. He shared a celebration that included Jeremiah Smith hyping up the offensive line after Bo Jackson’s second touchdown.
Coach Day mentioned on Wednesday that we are “desperate” for a win. We could use many touchdown celebrations this game.
Entering Saturday, Ohio State is averaging 2.3 offensive touchdowns per game in their last three games against Indiana, USC, and Oregon. Now, they face a defense in Northwestern that has given up fewer points per game than both USC and Oregon.
Northwestern does a great job overall limiting red-zone scoring chances. The Wildcats are tied for 15th in the country in this area. That red-zone attempt number, however, skyrockets when they are on the road, going from 2.6 attempts per game, to 4.
In this game, I expect us to continue that trend for Northwestern, and we will find ourselves in the red zone frequently.
Bill Landis talked this week about 12-personnel sets decreasing significantly against Oregon. I expect us to be excited about the outcome of this game due to not just winning the game, but by seeing that our cries for more 11-personnel sets have been heard.
This will be a game of peppering catches between Jeremiah Smith and Chris Henry Jr. Anything one can do, the other will try to do better — although Jeremiah will prove impossible to keep up with, both for CHJ and the Northwestern secondary. They will both provide early convictions of confidence for Fahey by making catches that move the chains.
Defensively, Jaylen McClain and Jay Timmons will each make plays that make us take steps — even if just baby steps — towards forgetting the dropped interceptions last week by reaching the quarterback on blitzes from Matt Patricia designs.
If COVID taught me anything, it is that any Saturday we have a Buckeye game is an absolute gift. We have a gift this Saturday. For three years now, we have had the absolute gift of getting to watch JJ compete. There were tears in my eyes when I got to see him break the Buckeyes receiving yardage record live against Kent State.
For anyone going to the game this weekend, I am confident there will be tears in your eyes too for something humbling, something remarkable, that he puts on display. Perhaps even another four-score performance like he had against Illinois.
This offseason, I remember a subscriber on the Father’s Day podcast sharing a story about remembering family with the song “I Wanna Go Back to Ohio State.”
For that subscriber, and for all of the BAD Family, I will be listening to that song on Friday night. Remembering the excitement that awaited this season. Remembering the excitement that it can still bring.