COLUMBUS — Ohio State hasn’t won at USC since 1946. Maybe 80 years has been long enough.
It’s game theories for the No. 2 Buckeyes at the Trojans on Saturday night.
Game theory from Bill
Pick: Ohio State 24, USC 20
I thought about just putting a question mark for my score prediction because I have no feel for this game. So I settled on picking the team with the better roster (Ohio State) to win, and picking the home team that gets to face a freshman quarterback making his first start on the road to cover. It's my version of sitting on the fence.
How motivated is USC here? Do the Trojans feel like their backs are against the wall and their coach is under fire? Will they rally to that cause? Give us the best we've seen of the Trojans this year? Or will we see the team with the porous defense and offense that tends to wilt if you hit them in the mouth the way Wisconsin did last week?
I don't think USC is going to roll over at home, but I'm expecting Ohio State's defense to continue its trend of dominating opponents' rushing attacks and forcing the Trojans into a game where quarterback Jayden Maiava (who's 0-6 at USC when throwing 40 or more times) to throw more than Lincoln Riley wants him to. The Jay Timmons injury situation does scare me. Increased corner reps for Cam Calhoun (if Timmons can't go) could be a problem for OSU, but USC also isn't as good at receiver at Indiana -- so maybe Matt Patricia's can weather that storm if Timmons can't go.
It was a tale of two halves on third/fourth down for Ohio State's defense against Indiana. In the first half, Patricia was conservative in those moments. Indiana converted well and should have converted more. Patricia was aggressive in those moments in the second half, and the Hoosiers look flustered. I'm thinking Patricia comes out aggressive against USC.
You need to expect some growing pains for Luke Fahey, but he's equipped with a running ability that can help him find the flow of the game better than if he had to just sit in the pocket on every play and make throws. I'd look to run him early if I'm Arthur Smith. Assuming USC crowds Jeremiah Smith, the Buckeyes need to manufacture touches for him like they did against Maryland when he took two short throws to the house. Make USC tackle in space. The Trojans aren't good at it.
When Smith is out in the pattern and getting bodies thrown at him, I'm expecting Chris Henry Jr. and/or Devin McCuin to be more productive than they have been as Fahey works his progressions.
It would be great if Ohio State's rushing attack could rise to the occasion and carry the offense. I'm skeptical, even if I think Isaiah West could be turning it on a little bit. Fahey is going to have to make some plays for Ohio State to win. I think he will.
My score is probably a touchdown or so lower on both sides because of the expected rain in Los Angeles on Saturday, which could be at its heaviest during the game. That could make for some sloppy conditions on a natural grass field, but wind shouldn't be a factor.
Game theory from subscriber Cowboy
Pick: Ohio State 27, USC 17
This game will be able to be summarized in one sentence: Ryan Day runs a championship-level program, and Lincoln Riley does not. USC will play better at home but will get worn down in the second half as the Buckeyes play with the will to show everyone (including themselves) that they are still contenders this season.
Offense
To get it out of the way, Luke Fahey starts, and there are no snaps for Tavien St. Clair against USC. Fahey will play fine thanks to a game plan designed around running the ball, passing concepts that protect the QB (three-step drops, moving the pocket, screens),and having Jeremiah Smith. Fahey finishes 16 of 22 for 220 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. A large portion of those completions will be to TEs and RBs in the flat. Checkdowns will move the chains. JJ catches four for 96 yards and a TD. The TD won’t be as absurd as Indiana, but absurd enough that it reminds everyone he is the best in all of college football.
The running game isn’t explosive, but it will be better against a defense that is not interested in a bare-knuckle brawl. Let’s call the running game “efficient plus,” as it will not have many runs for two yards or less, and we’ll see an uptick in runs that go for around seven yards. Bo Jackson will take the lion’s share of carries, but Isaiah West will make his presence felt, especially in the second half. There will be a little Legend Bey and WR activity added in, to mixed results. Fahey moves the chains once with his legs but also takes two sacks.
Defense
The run game won’t materialize for USC as the front seven plays a sound game.
Jayden Maiava and the passing game will get theirs as Matt Patricia is content to mostly keep everything in front of them. This will lead to some frustrating third-down conversions but not a ton of points. The line won’t generate much pressure, which is the story of the season, so Patricia will bring some well-timed pressure, which works but does lead to one explosive TD.
Maiava throws two TDs but also a pick. Payton Pierce will also force a fumble for two turnovers for the D.
Game Flow
If you are lucky enough to go trick-or-treating with your kids, you will miss the first 30 minutes and may get concerned when you see USC up 7-0 early, along with back-to-back three-and-outs to start the game for OSU.
Fahey and the Bucks esttle in on both sides, and they put together a nice drive in the second quarter capped off by a Bo Jackson TD run. The streak of scoring in the final two minutes of the first half is broken, but the score is square, 10-10, at the half.
The offense hits its stride in the third quarter when they drive down for a field goal to start the second half. After a quick three-and-out from the D, the offense begins to assert itself in the run game, which will lead to a play-action shot to JJ for a 44-yard touchdown. USC responds with a touchdown of its own to make it 20-17. The offensive line and West decide enough is enough and lean on USC for a 12-play scoring drive with 10 runs. USC gets the ball back but eventually turns it over on downs with less than five minutes to play. With the game effectively over, it’s time to crack an Oktoberfest and put on Spit Your Game by Biggie to celebrate the big win.
Postgame Talk
The talk will be mostly complimentary and that OSU is still a contender for the natty. There will be justifiable concerns around the pass rush and if this offense can do enough to win it all. The other games this weekend will have weird results that muddy the waters on who will fill out the 12-team bracket, vbut the path for the Buckeyes will be clear: Just Win, Baby.
Game theory from Doug
Pick: USC 24, Ohio State 20
USC converted just 2 of 11 third downs in its home loss to Oregon. Do that again, and the Trojans are done against Ohio State. USC doesn’t run the ball consistently, doesn’t throw downfield much, and quarterback Jayden Maiava isn’t a scrambling threat. So how have the Trojans consistently been a Top 5 statistical offense this season? They are efficiency monsters in the pass game.
USC for the season is over 50 percent on third downs, and the Ohio State defense hasn’t been great at getting off the field. The Buckeyes are 74th in the nation, allowing 38 percent of third downs to be converted, and against the four best teams they played — Texas, Illinois, Iowa and Indiana — they allowed 50 percent conversions.
That’s where USC can stay in the game. As Bill pointed out, Matt Patricia might come after Maiava more aggressively, and he should. But this is a fifth-year college football player making his 37th career start. Maiava hasn’t been elite this season, but he won’t miss as many throws as Indiana’s Josh Hoover did. Repeatedly making 8-yard throws on third-and-6, and 12-yard throws on third-and-10, will drive the Buckeyes and OSU fans crazy.
USC has scored on its first drive in five of eight games. They’ll make it six on Saturday and put the Buckeyes and new QB starter Luke Fahey in a hole. Fahey will show up as a gamer, but he’ll also make young mistakes. USC didn’t have any sacks against Oregon but the Trojans have nine in their last three games. Give them another three in this one. Throw in two interceptions for Fahey, one on a tipped pass at the line and another when he forces a throw in the second half while the Buckeyes are trailing.
I can see the lead exchanging hands a few times. It’ll be a test for the OSU offense to rally, and Fahey and the Buckeyes will do it more than once. But with the ball in the final five minutes, down 4, the task will be too much. Think a scaled-down version of C.J. Stroud in his second career start against Oregon in 2021. Stroud played great in that game, but down 7 with the ball in the final three minutes, he was intercepted.
Ohio State will come out of this one with plenty of things to build on with Fahey. The Buckeyes will come home with a loss, but also with hope.
Of course we’re hoping that Doug, as usual, is wrong!😃
Looking into USC‘s offensive stats a little deeper. If you just isolate out their conference play, the majority of their stats are being heavily propped up by a weak non-conference and playing Rutgers. Even their passing game looks kind of just above average. Maybe decent if you just look at conference play. With a limited USC run game and that Matt Patricia‘s defense has held the last 19 out of 21 opponents under 21 points. I don’t see how USC gets above 21 points.
I also think we’re under estimating the bye week. Especially when it comes to getting players healthy. Especially along the offensive line. I think this rest plus getting back to basics will rejuvenate the run game. Couple that with the QB being more mobile. I think Ohio State score is over 21 points against this USC defense. I also think Jeremiah Smith is gonna have extra motivation. I think he pops off against this defense.
OSU: 27, USC: 16