COLUMBUS — Every week of the 2026 season, we’ll give you our score predictions and our theories for how Ohio State’s game will go. And each week, we’ll invite one of our subscribers to join us in making those predictions.
Game 1 is here. Ohio State will host Ball State on Saturday at 12:30 p.m., with the game broadcast on the Big Ten Network. The Buckeyes are favored by 50.5 points, with a projected point total of 56.6 points.
Here’s what we think will happen.
Game theory from Bill
Pick: Ohio State 51, Ball State 7
Ohio State has played a MAC team six previous times with Ryan Day as head coach, and last year’s 37-9 win against Ohio was the first time the Buckeyes failed to score at least 52 points against a MAC opponent. The average margin of victory in Day’s six wins against MAC teams is 51.5 points. So I’m dancing near that average with my pick.
Ball State is projected to be one of the worst teams in the MAC this year. I perused Phil Steele’s season preview and saw that he has only one Cardinal defender on any of his four preseason All-MAC teams, and that player was on the fourth team. This Ball State defense will be severely outmanned, so OSU should be able to do whatever it wants on offense. The question is how much it’ll want to show with a trip to Texas on the horizon. What the Buckeyes will want to show, I have no doubt, is that they’re a physical team who can run the ball whenever they want. So I’m expecting a lot of that in this game. Thing is, some of that running better be explosive.
Ball State gave up its share of explosive runs last year, and is probably worse on defense this year. Bo Jackson, and whichever other running backs get carries, should be out there making second-level defenders miss in a way that backs up the preseason talk about their position. I could see Arthur Smith wanting to hold back some of the passing packages, so I’m expecting a run-it-and-bomb-it approach from the offense as it gets up big, then throttles down before letting the backups play.
Lot of talk about Ball State quarterback Keldric Luster. He’s not much of a thrower. He’ll want to run. The Cardinals will want to shorten the game. I’m not expecting the ball to be in the air much against OSU’s defense, which probably means we’ll see a decent amount of three-linebacker sets (and maybe less Jay Timmons, sorry).
I’m a proponent of throwing the kitchen sink at an overmatched opponent and putting it all on tape for a team like Texas to worry about next week, but football coaches are often more cautious than that. So the Buckeyes probably keep it pretty basic on both sides of the ball and still win comfortably.
Game theory from Doug
Pick: Ohio State 52, Ball State 7
The game isn’t a test, but the Buckeyes can test out who they want to be. Defensively, I think that means working through all the players who can be part of a rotation or a subpackage and getting a handle who’s ready to play at Texas in Week 2.
It that 19 deep? Yeah, I think it.
OSU defenders might not be tested chasing guys down in space, but 250-pound Ball State QB Keldric Luster should tote the ball, and I want to see Payton Pierce, Christian Alliegro, TJ Alford, Riley Pettijohn and the OSU linebackers tackle. Sonny Styles didn’t miss a tackle through the first 13 games last season.
I’m not sure we’ll learn much about the pass rush or the secondary.
Offensively, I’d expect the Buckeyes to plant some ideas in the heads of Texas of how they might use Jeremiah Smith. Move him around, pair him with various other receivers. I do think the Buckeyes could put different receiver groupings out there for much of the game, mixing and matching and getting a feel for the room.
I’m guessing, with plans to keep players fresh for the trip to the heat of Austin in a week, the key starters could be out after the first drive in the second half. That would provide a chance to get a real look at Tavien St. Clair and Luke Fahey in the backup QB battle. Sometimes the Buckeyes really shut it down and just make those guys hand off, but I’ll keep fingers crossed about the possibility of each getting at least one drive to fully run the offense.
Game theory from subscriber Ryan Beadle of Cincinnati
Pick: Ohio State 59, Ball State 0
• Last year’s talk of Matt Patricia being the best hire in CFB continues with a new candidate in Arthur Smith. Offense looks crisp, organized, and dangerous even while staying pretty vanilla in play calling.
• First TD: After a couple runs from Bo Jackson on the opening drive, Julian Sayin from under center runs play action and throws a 48-yard post route to Jeremiah Smith for a touchdown.
• Jackson breaks a 56-yard run for a touchdown in the second quarter showing he has the burst missing last year.
• JJ gets taken out at the half, but Julian stays in for a third quarter opening drive with freshmen Chris Henry Jr. and Brock Boyd in the game.
• Tavien St. Clair removes some of the concerns around him from the past couple weeks by throwing a strike for a TD to Henry.
• Defense dominates with very little scheme shown for next week’s Texas game.
• Kenyatta Jackson strip sacks Ball State’s Temu version of the Hefty Lefty and Pierce picks it up.
• Jay Timmons looks the part and shows that he will be a valuable asset to the team this year.
• Biggest hit comes from Riley Pettijohn.
• Houston you have a problem coming to you next week in Texas when Eddrick comes to town. Shows early that he is going to continue the tradition of dominant interior linemen at Ohio State.
• Legend Bey is no longer a legend unseen and gets a pop pass and some runs to go along with some flashes in the return game.
• With the score 56-0 with three minutes left in the game, from the 35-yard line Ryan Day decides to give the fans what they want in a over and a cover and trots out Connor Hawkins to kick a 52-yard field goal. Hawkins drills it and draws one of the largest cheers of the game.
• Leading passer is Sayin with 258 yards and 3 TDs. Leading receiver is JJ with 6 catches for 98 yards and a TD. Leading rusher is Bo Jackson with 122 yards and 2 TDs.