COLUMBUS — Big Ten play kicks off for the 2-1 Buckeyes in Week 4 against 2-1 Illinois, with the Illini carrying a weird Week 2 loss to Duke. Ohio State has won 10 straight against Illinois
On to theories of the game.
Game theory from Bill
Pick: Ohio State 38, Illinois 14
Bret Bielema has never lost to Ohio State by more than three touchdowns, which is why I'm picking Illinois to cover the 27.5-point spread. That said, I don't see the Illini ever actually making the Buckeyes sweat. This score prediction is similar to last year's game, where OSU ran ahead early, sort of sat on its lead, and then Illinois scored in garbage time to make it closer than it actually was.
Ryan Day challenged his run game this week. Illinois allowed 194 rushing yards to UAB in Week 1, and 170 to Duke in Week 2. The Illini have been a poor tackling team. There should be opportunities for Bo Jackson and Ja'Kobi Jackson (plus Legend Bey, if he's ready to go) to hit some big runs against this defense. There should be opportunities to hit some big play-action passes off those runs.
How Ohio State's offensive line handles Illinois' defensive movement will be key. I'm expecting to see Gabe VanSickle on the right side with Austin Siereveld. If VanSickle plays well again, and the offensive line continues what I've viewed as consistent, game-to-game improvement, then this could be the offensive line the rest of the way. If there are issues, then you'll probably see Phillip Daniels inserted back into the lineup for the trip to Iowa next week.
Interesting matchup for the Ohio State defense. Illinois' offense has been highly efficient and devoid of explosiveness. However, offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. does some interesting things with motions and misdirections that could throw some of OSU's young defenders for a loop. I won't be surprised if one of those plays gets out for a big hit, but I'm also not expecting Illinois to consistently drive it on Ohio State's defense.
Illini quarterback Katin Houser gets the ball out quickly, and he can scramble a little bit. How does Matt Patricia handle that? Does he try to keep Houser in the pocket? Or heat him up and rush him into throws? I'm guessing we see more of the latter.
Ohio State's defense vs. the Illinois' offense, with its efficiency and weird looks, is the more interesting matchup here. But Illinois is also dealing with a couple of offensive line injuries that make things less compelling that they appear to be on paper coming into it.
Watch out for special teams shenanigans.
Game theory from subscriber Michael J., an Ohio native now living in Phoenix
Pick: Ohio State 45, Illinois 13
Illinois does not pose the threat that they seemed to a year ago, but you can always count on the Fightin’ Bert Bielemas to try to take a crowbar to your kneecaps when you least expect it.
Despite the drubbing of Kent State last week, I think this Buckeye team is still vengeful and ready to prove themselves against a step up in competition, so I don’t expect Illinois to catch them off guard. Still, there could be a play or two from the Illini that makes the Buckeye faithful sweat a bit.
I also see a thoroughly unconvinced fanbase, so expect the Buckeyes to put on a show early as they seek to rewrite the narrative on this season and re-establish themselves as a dominant force in Big Ten play and beyond.
On offense, they will go to Jeremiah Smith early and often as they seek to build out his Heisman resume against opponents with a pulse. The young bucks in Zone 6 will see the field plenty, but JJ will play beyond what is strictly necessary as they maximize his final year in Scarlet and Gray while simultaneously “leaving no doubt”.
More sets with Jeremiah in the slot and Chris Henry Jr. out wide will be on display here as the latter gains confidence and starts to work his way more heavily into the rotation. Give me two touchdowns for No. 4 and one for No. 15, with clutch receptions for Brandon Inniss and Brock Boyd sprinkled in as well.
The Jackson 2 will split carries at running back, as they have been — but the real curiosity here is whether Legend Bey is healthy enough to go, and if they trust him enough to give him snaps that matter. If he’s at full speed, this could be his kick return touchdown debut, as Robby Discher sticks it to his former employer in a bold display of special teams savvy.
Prepare yourself for the sinking feeling that comes with watching 13 personnel trot out a handful of times in the first quarter, but if the tight ends continue to struggle in run block, I fully expect them to #LetJakeCook as the hitherto transient No. 81 becomes a staple for the remainder of the season.
Defensively, Matt Patricia’s play calling will continue to frustrate the portion of the fanbase that longs for disruption, with an emphasis on containing Katin Houser and limiting explosives rather than going for the kill.
With that said, moving personnel around will create organic havoc: Kenyatta Jackson taking reps inside, Khary Wilder being unleashed in pass rush scenarios, and Christian Alliegro and Riley Pettijohn crashing down off the end will produce the highest sack count of the season. I would count on the defense to generate one touchdown this week as well, either directly or by providing a very short field.
Jay Timmons will have his “You got BBQ back there?!” moment when he lays out Ca’Lil Valentine, but even that won’t be enough to excite Gus Johnson as he suffers through calling another Ohio State game. And speaking of Johnsons, Cincere will show up in the fourth quarter like the Kool-Aid man, intent on making sure we remember the name.
Overall, I see this as the real “get right” game after the Texas loss, with the passing game setting the tone early and giving way to a steady clobbering in the run game as the Buckeyes keep their foot on the gas well into the fourth quarter, despite the game being well in hand by halftime.
Flashes from the young guys and improvements in some key pain points leave us tempering our enthusiasm with rebuttals of “But it was only Illinois”.
Game theory from Doug
Pick: Ohio State 38, Illinois 14
Ryan Day is all over the idea of the competitiveness of his quarterback, so I expect Julian Sayin to be making plays out of the pocket, fighting through pass-rush pressure and making more plays than maybe we’ve ever seen him do.
Day is trying to bring something out of Sayin, and with the varied pressure looks that new Illinois defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck may bring from his 3-3-5 alignment, there will be plays for Sayin to make out of structure, but less time to make his typical throws in structure.
Left tackle Ian Moore said the offensive line is prepared for Hauck to try to confuse them, so I’ll call a first-half drive where the Buckeyes buckle down and march 75 yards while doing something like running it on 12 of 14 plays. Sometimes you have to reward the big guys and let them eat. That includes Jake Cook getting another healthy dose of Bison package work.
But I also think the Buckeyes will want to give Sayin opportunities to let his QB freak flag fly. Anticipate at least three big-time throws out of the pocket in scramble drills.
On defense, I’ll be counting the Riley Pettijohn and Christian Alliegro snaps together. I’ll guess the Buckeyes still start Payton Pierce, but let’s guess Alliegro and Pettijohn as the two linebackers on the second drive. Nudge the person next to you when they are out there together and pay attention to the chaos they can cause as blitz threats.
I’d love Matt Patricia to dial it up, but with Katin Houser getting the ball out quickly, more blitzes will have to wait. Illinois receiver Collin Dixon will do some damage — let’s say seven catches for 85 yards and a score — but I can also see Houser trying to force the ball to him at times. After interceptions by Jaylen McClain, TJ Alford and Pettijohn this season, let’s call the first pick of the season for a cornerback — either Jermaine Mathews or Devin Sanchez.
And yes … Bill and I picked the same score.
Very good predictions from Bill, Michael J and Doug. I’ll be in The Shoe for this one and feel like the Buckeyes open up a can of Whoop$&$ on the Fighting Bielema’s tomorrow with a final score of 41-13. I predict this will be the first game this year where our offense gets close to the balanced efficiency Coach Day is looking for from this group. Defensively I can see Coach Patricia be aggressive with certain personnel/packages in the game (Alliegro-Pettijohn/Pettijohn-Alford LB grouping & with Wilder & Epi on the edge), but overall just trying to confuse Hauser with various pre-snap looks. I also feel like we may see some 3 safety looks, with Terry Moore getting his highest # of snaps yet.