COLUMBUS — It’s almost time for the first Top 5 matchup in the history of Indiana’s Memorial Stadium.
Here are the game theories for No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana on Saturday.
Game theory from Bill
Pick: Ohio State 28, Indiana 21
Indiana needs explosive plays to win a game like this, and the one constant through Matt Patricia's time in Columbus is that his defense doesn't allow them. It's not as simple as that, of course, but that quality is what gives me confidence in the Buckeyes' ability to do what's needed on defense against an offense with premier weapons. I'm putting a lot of faith in OSU's coordinator pairing here, Patricia to keep Indiana grounded and Arthur Smith to have the plan the Buckeyes need to finish drives.
If OSU only gets 2.5 points per red zone trip, which is what happened last year, it probably won't win.
There's a script in which Ohio State does limit Indiana's explosives that still worries me, and that's the one where the Hoosiers still hold the ball long enough to limit the at-bats for Ohio State's offense. Patricia will need to strike the correct balance between bend-but-don't-break and timely aggression that gets his defense off the field when it's time to get off the field. His unit struggled with the latter in the Week 2 road loss at Texas. I'm expecting that lessons were learned then. I'm also expecting some well-timed blitzes from Jay Timmons and Earl Little that help the defense get stops.
I saw Indiana linebacker Isaiah Jones say they weren't going to let Jeremiah Smith beat them. The way Indiana does that is not by limiting Smith himself, but by getting after Julian Sayin and disrupting the timing of Ohio State's passing attack. The Buckeyes know this, and I'm expecting a plan that uses heavy play-action and pocket movement to get Sayin into spots where he can deliver the ball to Smith. If some of Indiana's earlier games this year are any indication, Nate Roberts and Mason Williams could be surprising contributors. When OSU finally started to crack Indiana's defense last year, the tight ends got involved.
You're right to be concerned about Ohio State's offensive line in this matchup, especially without Austin Siereveld. Nobody has said this, but I think the entire offseason for that group was about getting back to this game and performing better than it did last year. I expect them to.
If special teams become a factor, meaning it comes down to someone having to make a big kick, I wouldn't feel great about OSU's chances. But behind Smith, Sayin and an offensive line looking to change minds and hearts, I don't think it comes down to that.
Game theory from subscriber Brandon N. of Wooster, Ohio
Pick: Ohio State 31, Maryland 24
As I began writing this Game Theory, I thought I knew exactly where to take this. However, I opened up Substack and saw that the wonderful Bill Landis was reporting that not only is Austin Siereveld unavailable, but so is Ja’kobi Jackson. OSU will now be without their best offensive lineman and (debatably) their most effective RB. This gave me pause and combined with the anxiety every OSU fan feels before a big game, I wasn’t sure what to write.
I then did what all football fans do, and I texted my football-loving buddy (who is also an OSU grad) and told him my situation and asked his thoughts. We realized that Vegas hadn’t moved the line, and honestly, as smart as I think I am, I’m still way dumber than Vegas. With that thought in mind, I poured myself a glass of bourbon (that was for you Rob) and got in the lab.
Now the thing I’ve noted the most about Indiana, as most others have, is that they are crazy explosive. Every time I’ve flipped to an Indiana game, it’s been a 50-yard run or a 50-yard pass. But even given their explosive nature, I didn’t think that any of their final scores matched what the box score would tell you. That’s what they call inefficiency.
Even though I’m sure OSU has prepared for it, the explosive Indiana offense strikes first. On the opening possession of the game, the OSU defensive line plays a little too much hero ball, failing to maintain their gaps and allowing Turbo Richard to break a 58-yard touchdown run. Old habits die hard.
On the following possession, OSU starts off with a few solid Bo Jackson runs and a nice RPO to No. 4 that makes it seem like the OSU offense is going to have a big day. But the run game stalls out and Julian Sayin gets sacked on the game’s first big third down due to (and I’m sure you guessed it) the offensive line not picking up the movement of the Indiana defense. OSU punts — again, old habits die hard.
On Indiana’s second possession, OSU tightens up the run defense some and forces a third and medium early in the drive. But another big play strikes as Indiana gets Nick Marsh one-on-one in the slot with a safety, resulting in a big touchdown throw from Josh Hoover, giving people flashbacks to the Arch Manning interception that should have been 6 points early in the Texas game.
It’s 14-0 Hoosiers. For a third time, a familiar issue bites OSU.
As you are reading this, you might be thinking to yourself “this guy stinks,” as it looks like I’m predicting a Hoosiers blowout win. But here’s where I reveal the title of my theory: “The Reverse Texas.” (Safe for work, I promise.)
Just as the game seems to be getting out of hand, Sayin leads a methodical drive down to the Indiana 12-yard line, where OSU stalls out and settles for a field goal, but the Buckeyes stop the bleeding. The OSU defense then starts to get their stuff together, holding Indiana scoreless for the rest of the half. While the defense settles in, the offense continues to search for answers.
That changes when OSU gets the ball back with 1:45 left on the clock. As they have done all year, Sayin leads the offense down the field in the two-minute drill, but this time they punch it in with a slant to Devin McCuin. OSU gets the spark it needs, and it’s 14-10 Hoosiers at half.
The second half opens with the OSU offense getting the ball, and unlike other games this year, they hit the ground running. Highlighted by a big 20-yard burst by none other than Legend Bey, the Buckeyes put another one in the end zone to make it 17-14. Indiana responds with a long, methodical drive of its own, but the OSU defense holds, forcing an IU field goal. It’s 17-17 — tie game.
From there on, it’s all Buckeyes. Sayin finally has his coming out moment in a marquee matchup, and as the OSU offensive line did against Penn State in 2024, he drops his nuts. (Editor’s note: Brandon!)
Sayin feeds Jeremiah consistently, getting him over the 100-yard mark and throwing another touchdown to add to his Heisman campaign. Bo Jackson punches in another score in the fourth quarter to put an exclamation point on the game. Indiana finds a way to get another touchdown powered by Charlie Becker and an untimely DPI penalty on Devin Sanchez, but it’s simply not enough.
Final Score: Ohio State 31, Indiana 24.
The game starts as a painful flashback to Ohio State’s last three losses for many OSU fans, causing a few minor mental breakdowns in the Substack chat. But it ends with Ohio State winning the way the Buckeyes couldn’t a year ago.
Sayin is brilliant, the defense gets timely stops, and the offensive line, well, they do just enough. Go Bucks and thank you Bill and Doug for the opportunity to write this. (Editor’s note: You’re welcome. I love the subscriber game theories.)
Game theory from Doug
Pick: Ohio State 28, Indiana 17
I studied three Indiana games this week — last year’s Big Ten Championship, and the Northwestern and Nebraska games this season — and came away thinking the Hoosiers could have, and maybe should have, lost them all.
I’m expecting the Buckeyes to put a lot of this game on Jermaine Mathews and Devin Sanchez to hold up in coverage on Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker. Those Indiana receivers combine to average 10 catches and 176 yards per game, and they’ll win their share of battles. But I’m envisioning some big pass breakups from the OSU corners on third down.
Indiana was the best in the nation on third down last year, converting 56.5 percent. The Hoosiers were 6 of 13 vs. Ohio State. This season, Indiana is converting 45.3 percent, and they were 1 of 10 against Nebraska last week. Envision something like 4 of 12 on third down for the Hoosiers in this game.
I think the Buckeyes can pressure Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover, who has played well in Indiana’s system but I’m not sure can do much outside the system. According to PFF, Hoover has been pressured the least of any Big Ten QB, less than 20 percent of the time. Matt Patricia should dial up some pressures, and while I don’t think it’ll mean Hoover will throw his first interception of the season, I could see his completion percentage hovering around 50 percent. He was 12 of 22 against Nebraska last week. I could see something like 16 of 30.
Offensively, the OSU passing game should lead the way. Nebraska receiver Jacory Barney had nine catches for 108 yards against Indiana last week. Northwestern tight end Luke Dehnicke had seven catches for 140 yards earlier in the year. I don’t think the Hoosiers will have an answer for Jeremiah Smith, and Julian Sayin should target him relentlessly. I’ll say 10 catches on 15 targets for 180 yards and a score for Smith, and the Hoosiers will feel his presence on every snap.
I loved Brandon’s Reverse Texas theory, but I actually see Ohio State in control all day. Early OSU drives for touchdowns while the Hoosiers are forced to punt on three of their first four drives, with a big Indiana play creating a score on the other drive.
Up 14-7, I’ll bite on another two-minute drill touchdown for the Buckeyes and a 21-7 halftime lead. After some halftime adjustments by the Hoosiers, the OSU offense stalls early in the second half while Indiana adds a field goal.
Needing a fourth-quarter drive before the game turns against them, the Buckeyes deliver behind Sayin a Smith for a 28-10 lead, and Indiana adds a late touchdown for a 28-17 final. But the Buckeyes look like the better team all day and are never really threatened. And after they win, they’ll admit they wanted revenge.
Beat them. Just beat them and return balance to the universe.
My heart says Doug, my brain says Bill.