Ohio State vs. Iowa: Game theories and picks for the Buckeyes vs. Hawkeyes, plus polls on your picks

Bill, Doug and a subscriber provide theories for Saturday’s game in Iowa City, while you are asked to vote on the point spread and over-under.

COLUMBUS — Ohio State is 3-1, ranked No. 5 and preparing to play in Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City on Saturday for the first time in 3,256 days.

How will it go, with the Buckeyes favored by 14.5 points?

Time for theories of the game.

(Picks video will be recorded late Thursday afternoon and placed here upon upload.)

Game theory from Doug

Pick: Ohio State 30, Iowa 19

Iowa is always one of the best defenses in the nation at limiting big plays. The Hawkeyes gave up the fewest plays of 20 yards or more in 2022 and 2023 and ranked No. 8 in the fewest big plays in 2024 and 2025.

Michigan hit Iowa for seven plays of 20-plus yards last week, a pretty stunning number. So if the Wolverines can do it, can’t the Buckeyes do it , too?

Maybe. Probably. But with a little patience.

Iowa’s game notes mention very quickly that the Hawkeyes have forced opponents to put on opening drives in 10 straight games. That’s quite an Iowa thing to do, and to promote. I expect the Buckeyes to break that with the style of offense they showed early against Kent State.

Ohio State was precise and methodical while starting that game with four touchdown drives. The Buckeyes put together 27 plays of near perfection, with only three of them for 20 yards or more, with patient, artistic marches. Last time Ohio State played the Hawkeyes, in Columbus in 2024, the opening drive went 14 plays for 88 yards and took up half the first quarter. No play on that touchdown drive went for longer than 12 yards.

Give me a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive on the Buckeyes’ first possession to break that Iowa punt-forcing streak. But then what?

In 2024, the score was still just 7-0 five minutes into the third quarter until a 53-yard Will Howard to Jeremiah Smith deep shot set up a touchdown. With Iowa then on its heels and forced to pass, the Buckeyes’ defense constricted around the Hawkeyes as Jack Sawyer and Ty Hamilton had strip sacks.

Methodical offense early, a quick offensive strike in the middle of the game (the Buckeyes finished with four 20-plus plays in the 2024 matchup) and then a slow squeeze from the defense would be a great game plan. I’m not sure if the OSU defense can execute it.

I think this one stays reasonably close into the fourth quarter, with Iowa featuring enough pass catchers to move the ball. Let’s say something like 16-6 at halftime, a bit of a field goal battle, before the Hawkeyes put together their lone touchdown drive early in the third quarter to pull within three.

Then comes the offensive strike. Somebody will eventually get behind the Iowa defense (Chris Henry Jr?) to make it a 10-point game again. Ohio State’s defense will give up a couple more scoring drives, but hold the Hawkeyes to field goals. The OSU win is relatively comfortably, but maybe not as impressive as everyone wants.

That’s until you realize Iowa might have a shot at going 11-1 and making the playoff. In that light, easing to a two-score win on the road might be pretty good after all.

Game theory from subscriber Zack from Littleton, Colo.

Pick: Ohio State 31, Iowa 17

This season has been an absolute rollercoaster for Ohio State fans, and unlike the X2, this ride ain’t shutting down anytime soon! Ohio State travels this weekend to take on the Atlanta Hawks ... er sorry, the Iowa Hawkeyes, in what’s sure to be a doozy! Bottom line up front — I think two things are true when it comes to this game:

1. Ohio State is going to win (and cover) the 13.5-point spread the game opened at. (This is not financial advice, only gamble what you can afford to lose.)

2. Ohio State fans are going to be upset about the “way” the Buckeyes win, thanks to another up and down performance from the defense.

The story on offense: The normally stodgy Iowa defense looked anything but last week, while surrendering nearly 500 yards of offense to TTUN. The Wolverines had two different 100-yard receivers and gained over 150 yards on the ground.

Following last week’s transcendent performance from Julian Sayin, I think the Buckeyes continue to punish the Iowa back end and unfortunately for anyone who bought tickets to the Maryland game hoping to see history, Jeremiah Smith breaks both the Ohio State career receptions record and the career touchdowns record with an 11-catch, 174-yard, 2-touchdown performance.

Ohio State will continue to lean into its strengths this game, leveraging the pass to set up the run as the game goes on. Ja’Kobi Jackson will end up as the Buckeyes’ leading rusher, outgaining the unrelated Bo 84 yards to 68. Both Buckeyes will average over 6 yards per rush as the team breaks the 150-yard mark on the ground.

In the continuation of positive trends from last week, Nate Roberts sees his usage in the passing game continue to rise as he converts at least one key third down en route to three receptions and 35 yards. Brock Boyd and Chris Henry Jr. each notch two receptions as well, with CHJ picking up a score in the red zone. I also think we’ll continue to see “Julian on the move” this game, with Sayin converting a key third down with his legs. He’ll also tack on another rushing touchdown in the red zone. The Buckeyes will score on five of six drives en route to 31 points.

The story on defense: When asked about the issues in the run game earlier this week Kenyatta Jackson Jr. said, “It’s fixed.” As much as I’d like to believe him, I’m not sure some fiery words from Coach Patricia is going to get this run defense corrected in just one week after the performances we’ve seen against Texas and Illinois.

Iowa has a strong O-line and I think they’ll put it to use in this game, stringing together several sustained drives that are sure to drive Buckeyes fans crazy. Iowa will rush for over 100 yards and take advantage of a surprisingly strong (for Iowa at least) duo of receivers in Reece Vander Zee and tony Diaz to extend some drives with the quick passing game. I’m expecting the Buckeyes to continue to rotate too much on the defensive line, and I think the Iowa offense will be fairly efficient at times. I don’t think KJJ’s presser was all lip service however, and I think the defense gets enough stops to allow the Buckeyes to still win the game comfortably.

In some bright spots, Khary Wilder continues to get more and more snaps, eclipsing the 20-snap mark for the first time this season, and I think he picks up a sack. Zion Grady returns and forces some pressures (one of which ends up with a KJJ sack as Hank Brown is flushed into him). In the end, I think Iowa puts together four long drives to score 17 points with two touchdown drives, a field goal drive, and a late failure on a fourth down conversion with a huge play from Jermaine Matthews Jr. on a PBU to put Iowa’s hopes to bed.

The story on Special Teams: Connor Hawkins will hit a 43-yard field goal in a low leverage spot, thereby answering none of the questions Ohio State fans have about his ability in the clutch, but continuing to show he has the leg to be the best kicker OSU has fielded in a long time. Kirk Ferentz quietly cries after the game because he only gets to see one Joe McGuire punt and it didn’t live up to the hype. Ohio State fans continue to rage that Legend Bey hasn’t earned his kick return duties back, and we see nothing of note from either team in the return game.

Buckeyes win and cover while Jeremiah makes history, and the defense makes a few members of the fringe break some TV screens.

Game theory from Bill

Pick: Ohio State 28, Iowa 14

There's not much in the football between these two teams that tells you this game will be within two scores, but you have to respect the different nature of Iowa playing at home.

I'll start on the defensive side of the ball, because this will be a chin-check kind of game for Ohio State's defensive line. Iowa's offensive line won the Joe Moore Award last year. Only a couple of starters return from that group, but both are very good. And even when Iowa is not quite up to snuff up front, it still wants to run the ball. The Buckeyes just allowed the most rushing yards they've given up since 2023, and the highest yards-per-carry average they've allowed since 2022. Was just a bad day at the office? Or a sign of a real weakness for this defense? We'll find out on Saturday.

Kenyatta Jackson was pretty adamant this week that the defensive line will be better than it was last week against Illinois, and he said that group has had some tough conversations. I believe in Jackson's ability to take his game to another level, but I'm not sure about the collective defensive front. So I'm expecting Iowa to run it some in this game. However, I'm less worried about the Hawkeyes ability to throw it on OSU's defense. I think Iowa quarterback Hank Brown might be a bit of a gamer, but this passing attack isn't as efficient as Illinois. Part of me wonders if Illinois' rushing success had anything to do with OSU having to respect that passing attack more than it will Iowa's.

Day has never faced Iowa in Kinnick Stadium as a head coach, but he's had a pretty good idea of how to attack Phil Parker's defense in his two wins against Iowa in Columbus — and this defense might be worse than those previous two outfits. Julian Sayin and the passing attack should be efficient. I'm not worried about OSU's ability to put the ball in a position to score. It just needs to score touchdowns. I don't think they'll go 100 percent in the red zone on the road, but the Buckeyes will fare better than Michigan against Iowa did last week. It’ll be enough to keep the Hawkeyes at bay.

I'm expecting some rushing struggles. But Sayin, Jeremiah Smith and the rest of the passing unit will do enough to win the game.

If the Hawkeyes get a special teams or defensive score, then throw this script in the trash.