COLUMBUS — Ohio State has never lost to Maryland and over nine matchups has scored an average of 55 points per game against the Terrapins.
Is anyone thinking the Buckeyes might get to 55 on Saturday in a game in which they are favored by 33.5? (They were favored by 34.5 when we recorded our show Thursday, but that dropped a bit.)
Time for theories of the game.
Game theory from Bill
Pick: Ohio State 49, Maryland 14
Ryan Day handles business against Maryland, especially at home. This should be no different. Day has talked up some of Maryland's individual talent this week. I get it. He needs to keep his team locked in between road trips to Iowa and Indiana, but the Buckeyes are nearly five-touchdown favorites for a reason. And that reason is ... Maryland, which hasn't beaten a Power Four team since last September and is 0-8 against the spread in its last eight P4 games, isn't very good.
The Terrapins could be short-handed in the secondary, which means Jeremiah Smith should be in for another big day. The only thing Maryland can possibly do to stop OSU's passing attack is get after Julian Sayin. That might happen some, because the Terps' strength is on the defensive line, but it won't happen enough to matter. Not only will Smith have a big day, but I'm expecting this to be the game where Chris Henry Jr. and Brock Boyd get rewarded for their dirty work thus far with trips to the end zone.
With Day wanting to see more explosiveness from the rushing attack, a poor-tackling Maryland defense shows up right on time. The Buckeyes will have three runs of 20 yards or more, which would match their total season output thus far.
On defense, freshman defensive back Jay Timmons (who should be healthy this week) finds himself in an interesting matchup with Maryland receiver Chris Durr, who is second nationally, only behind Smith, in receptions. That said, Maryland quarterback Malik Washington has had issues protecting the ball in the last two weeks, with six interceptions combined against UCLA and Nebraska. I think that continues this week with Timmons getting one, and Jaylen McClain getting another.
I suspect Maryland will move the ball some via the Washington-Durr connection, especially if running back Dejuan Williams can play. But it won’t be enough to threaten Ohio State. One of Maryland's two scores will come late.
I will be keeping an eye on special teams here. Ryan Day has that unit in the spotlight this week and hinted at changing some things around. Maryland, meanwhile, is led on special teams by former Ohio State assistant Matt Barnes. I'm expecting Barnes to have a trick or two up his sleeve, and for OSU to try to get after some blocked punts.
Game theory from subscriber Luke W. of Aurora, Ohio
Pick: Ohio State 49, Maryland 17
Seven years ago, Ryan Day inexplicably nuked Maryland 73-14, perhaps buying into the conspiracy theory that head coach Mike Locksley was responsible for the investigation that landed Chase Young with the two-game suspension that kept him off the field against the Terps.
While I don’t think it’ll be quite that lopsided on Saturday, I do think that Ryan Day puts the final nail in Locksley’s coffin, ending his tenure at College Park.
Here’s how it could happen.
Maryland wins the toss and defers. Bad news, Terps, because Julian Sayin leads the offense down the field in a six-play drive that ends with Ja’Kobi Jackson in the end zone. Maryland QB Malik Washington picks up a couple first downs on the ensuing drive before the punting unit trots onto the field. When that punt is covered by Maryland inside the 10-yard line, a young boy in the stadium tugs his dad’s scarlet jersey and says, “You think we’ll ever drill a punt like that, Dad?”
“No, son.”
The father smiles and ruffles the boys hair. “No ,I don’t suppose we will.”
Several drives later, the good guys are up 21-0. Jeremiah Smith snags his first touchdown early in the second quarter, but the longest play of the half is a 33-yard strike to Brock Boyd.
OSU’s starting defense looks very good in the first half, but they give up a touchdown in the air to WR Chris Durr Jr. on the opening drive of the third quarter. Julian responds by pouring on two more TDs before handing the offense over to Luke Fahey for a couple more scores to close it out. The Terps add another 10 points in garbage time and then it’s on to Indiana.
Does Day reference the 2019 game in the postgame presser? Definitely not. He’s not as petty as some of us fans.
But Chase Young may get a text.
Game theory from Doug
Pick: Ohio State 48, Maryland 13
Ohio State’s last pick-six occurred 35 games ago in the 2024 season opener, when backup linebacker Gabe Powers, in garbage time, grabbed a swing pass deflected by Eddrick Houston and returned in 29 yards for a score. The play came in the final three minutes of a 52-6 win over Akron.
Tell Jaylen McClain it’s time for that drought to end.
Maryland quarterback Malik Washington has served up three pick-sixes in the last two games. McClain, meanwhile, has shown some real range as a free safety. He’s one of four Buckeyes credited with four pass breakups on the season. Washington has seen several routes jumped by defenders, and McClain will be next. He has two interceptions this season, one off the Texas deep shot that receiver Cam Coleman bounced into his hands, and the other against Iowa last week after pressure by John Walker produced a flutter ball. This time, McClain reads a Washington throw in the middle of the field and takes it to the house.
Maryland running back DeJuan Williams, listed as probable on the Thursday injury report, should pop a couple runs and remind us this isn’t a shutdown OSU run defense yet.
Julian Sayin completed just two of his last 10 passes against Texas. Since then, he’s 65 of 85 (76 percent) in his last three games. Expect that efficiency to continue against a beleaguered Maryland secondary. Sayin is tied for the best yards per attempt among power conference quarterbacks at 10.8 yards per throw, so let’s keep that on track and call for 23-of-28 passing for 302 yards.
I believe the Buckeyes may have landed on a running back rotation that makes sense, with Ja’Kobi Jackson as the starter and Bo Jackson like a sixth man off the bench. But let’s anticipate a little more Isaiah West worked in as well, as all three backs finish with between 40 and 60 yards. The Buckeyes, as usual, run it solidly but not spectacularly.
In the red zone, Sayin keeps it on a read play, with those talented Maryland edge players crashing down, and cashes in a short, untouched TD run on the corner.
Also, Jeremiah Smith will stay good.