AUSTIN, Texas — We are back with Week 2 theories of the game, as Bill and I explain what we think will happen in each Ohio State outing, joined by a guest subscriber each week. Ryan B. got things off to a flying start last week with a theory that correctly called Ohio State’s first touchdown being a 48-yard play-action shot to Jeremiah Smith. He saw the future. He also nailed the final point total with his call of Ohio State 59-0 when it wound up Ohio State 56, Ball State 3.
Bill and I did OK.
We talked out the game and gave our picks on the Wednesday show here on the site. We also did an abbreviated discussion on Northern Aggression, where we picked Ohio State-Texas and four other national games.
Now … theories.
Game theory from Bill
Pick: Ohio State 32, Texas 31
This game had 10 possessions last year. It’ll have more this year, and both offenses will gladly take the opportunities. We’ll see points.
Both quarterbacks and offenses are more mature. I think both defenses are a little worse. So it comes down to who you like more: Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith, or Arch Manning and Cam Coleman? Ohio State’s running back room, or Texas’ running back room? The Buckeyes’ offensive line or the Longhorns’ offensive line?
There are definitely reasons to like the Texas side, but I’m riding with the Ohio State side, most of whom have already been through the wars together.
I’m also basing this pick slightly on Texas needing this a whole lot more than Ohio State does, based on the Buckeyes winning this matchup each of the last two years, and Steve Sarkisian’s winless record against Ohio State and Georgia (5-0) — the type of games he needs to win to push his program up into a different tier of contender. If any team plays tight, it should be Texas.
Texas will move the ball some and score because Manning is better than he was last year, Coleman is the real deal, and the Longhorns have speed on offense that you need to respect. Ohio State’s defense was practically perfect last year in this game. I’m expecting a slightly less buttoned-up operation from the Buckeyes on that side this year. Texas will hit some explosives, but be less efficient play-to-play than Ohio State.
Ohio State will score points because new Longhorns defensive coordinator Will Muschamp won’t play this the same way Texas did the last two years. Former coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski kept more players in the back end and threw bodies at Jeremiah Smith. Muschamp, who blitzed C.J. Stroud on nearly 70 percent of his dropbacks when he was the co-defensive coordinator at Georgia in 2022 and faced the Buckeyes in the Peach Bowl, will throw bodies at the line of scrimmage and create room for Smith to operate.
Stroud shredded that Georgia defense against the blitz, completing 15 of 24 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns. That was Stroud’s 25th college start. This will be Sayin’s 16th. They're not exactly in the same place, but I expect this game to be the moment Sayin grows up, with Jeremiah Smith's help.
I’m worried about Ohio State’s offensive line. Arthur Smith will need a plan to account for Colin Simmons and Rasheem Biles. I think he’ll have it with run-pass options and play-action passes that keep those guys from playing on the front foot for the entire game.
This will be more of a Sayin-Manning dual than last year’s defense fest. Sayin will come out on top because he gets to throw the ball to Jeremiah Smith.
Game theory from Doug
Pick: Texas 35, Ohio State 31
Texas has been within striking distance of victory in each of the last two seasons against the Buckeyes, undone by failures in the red zone.
Down seven points in the final four minutes in the playoff semifinal during the 2024 season, Texas had first-and-goal at the 1-yard line before moving backwards for three plays, then getting Scooped and Sawyered.
Down 7-0 in the third quarter last year, Texas got to the 1 again and was stopped on fourth down. On its next drive, Texas again failed inside the 10, missing a pass to the end zone from the 9-yard line. That was 28 plays, 146 yards, 12 minutes off the clock and no points on those two drives, in a game Ohio State won by seven.
That’s tough math for the Buckeyes to continue.
I liked some of the Texas plays in the red zone last week, including a jet sweep touchdown to receiver Ryan Wingo. The Longhorns added two experienced transfer portal running backs, have a couple of big, veteran tackles, are led by a QB who has been through it, and play for a head coach who needs to get his head on straight when it matters if he wants to keep his job.
I think Texas moves it on the Buckeyes, but cashes it in this time. Hollywood Smothers had some nice cuts last week. Wingo and Cam Coleman are tough matchups at receiver. Arch Manning can run when needed, which Texas only figured out in the second half last year.
This OSU defense could round into form later in the season, but at the moment it’s not on the same level as the 2024 playoff defense or the 2025 defense that came out firing under Matt Patricia last season in Week 1.
So a shootout should be on. I’m certain Texas won’t shut down Jeremiah Smith, but I’m far less certain about the right tackle spot and the run game. Colin Simmons won’t be in the backfield all day, but I’d expect at least one play, let’s say a key third-down sack to end a second-half drive, that matters. Texas linebacker Rasheem Biles forced two turnovers last week, and I’ll expect he forces another Saturday,.
Big games for Sayin, Smith, Devin McCuin, and a big catch or two from Chris Henry Jr. will keep Ohio State in the game all night. But in a big-play battle on both sides, Texas makes one more.
Like we’ve seen in other big-game OSU losses, an opposing QB will lead a late-game march to put the Buckeyes away. This time, it’s an Arch March.
Game theory from subscriber Abdul A. from Dublin, Ohio
Pick: Ohio State 31, Texas 21
This game is going to come down to whether Ohio State’s offensive line can hold its own against Colin Simmons and Texas’ defensive line. Phillip Daniels will make the start and struggle, before eventually being replaced once again. This time, Josh Padilla replaces Austin Siereveld at right guard and Siereveld kicks out to right tackle and Ohio State finds its five best guys.
With the offensive line figured out, Julian Sayin is able to get the ball out on time to Jeremiah Smith, Devin McCuin and company. Texas, which has a new defensive coordinator this year in Will Muschamp, will not be able to replicate the success it had defending Jeremiah in 2024 and 2025. Muschamp is uber-aggressive and shows why he has been out of a job in recent years. Jeremiah feasts on the occasional single coverage he faces and has another 100-yard game and two touchdowns. Arthur Smith shows his value throughout the game with great play calls, designs and varied tempo.
Ohio State’s running game will again struggle for large parts of the game, but it will produce at least one big play (courtesy of Bo Jackson) hat will be critical in winning this game.
On defense, Arch Manning is going to make more plays with his legs than with his arm. He will beat contain on several plays and run for big chunks, extending moribund Texas drives. OSU will struggle to get home and will produce zero sacks.
Cam Coleman, despite his promise that he’s “coming,” will be bottled up and will spend more time calling for pass interference penalties than actually possessing the ball. Texas’ other receivers will step up and make some plays against OSU’s safeties. Jay Timmons, however, will make his first career interception.
Texas’ run game will be stymied for most of the game, largely by the interior D-line. The linebackers will continue to rotate and look solid. Matt Patricia will have a few plays, like the famous coffeehouse blitz, that will confuse Arch (and Sark) and keep Texas’ offense at bay for stretches of the game. Arch will throw two total interceptions as a result.
Connor Hawkins makes his first field goal of the year.
Ohio State 34-27.
Mr. SEC is mid picked Texas? FRAUD. Relinquish the crown.