Oregon at Ohio State: Game theories and picks for the Ducks vs. the Buckeyes, plus polls on your picks

Bill, Doug and subscriber Greg offer their game flow ideas as the No. 12 Buckeyes host No. 23 Oregon.

Ohio State hosts Oregon on Saturday. (Photo courtesy of Ohio State football.)

COLUMBUS — We’ll say it again … Ohio State, in a normal season (which means excluding 2011) hasn’t lost consecutive regular-season games since 2004.

So do our game theories support the Buckeyes avoiding that yet again, or finally stumbling into a regular-season losing streak?

Game theory from Bill

Pick: Oregon 21, Ohio State 20

I typically end up picking against Ohio State when I feel like I don’t have a great handle on the emotional state of the team. There’s certainly some of that baked into this pick. But I also think there are real football reasons to pick the Ducks here, centered on the Buckeyes’ struggles in pass protection and in the red zone.

Ohio State hasn’t handled good defensive fronts well all year. Sometimes they’ve won anyway. But the pressure rates have been too high for comfort in the biggest games, and here comes an Oregon defense that’s Top 15 in the country in pressure rate. We’re nine games into the season, and I’m not entirely sure Ohio State knows who its best five offensive linemen are. There’s a question of left tackle Ian Moore’s availability, which might require Austin Siereveld to start at a third different position this week. Luke Fahey handled the pressure reasonably well against USC, but this defensive line is better.

Then there’s the red zone, where Ohio State has been bad in just about every big game going on two years now. Oregon’s defense has stood up in the red zone against the best offenses it’s faced. I think the Buckeyes once again settle for too many field goals. I’m also nervous about frustrations in the red zone boiling over into fourth-down tries that don’t convert, resulting in a couple of red zone trips that yield no points as opposed to at least three.

Oregon’s defense is gettable outside of its defensive line. If the Buckeyes can block better than I’m anticipating, then there could be opportunities to throw the ball. I think Fahey could take a step this week after playing OK last week. Fahey’s legs could likewise be a weapon to slow down Oregon’s pass rush. With Ohio State’s backs against the wall, everything should be on the table in order to get a win. I’m just not convinced it will be.

Oregon’s offense is difficult to get a read on. It’s been largely bad, which is why it fired its coordinator two weeks ago, and the Ducks are likewise working with a backup quarterback — albeit an experienced one in Dylan Raiola. I thought Raiola was good last week against Northwestern, but he’s been so volatile in an Oregon uniform that there’s a decent chance he plays poorly against Ohio State. That’s the part of the Oregon side that I’m least certain about. But the Ducks have good speed on offense, and play a similar style to USC that seemed to stress the Buckeyes’ formationally and open up some chances for explosive plays.

I don’t see the Ducks moving it up and down the field all afternoon, but similar to the USC game, I think a few explosive plays could make the difference.
I also don’t love that Ohio State’s defense was bad in the fourth quarter against Texas and was half of a Nick Marsh foot away from giving it up late against Indiana. This defense wasn’t good at the end of its biggest games last year either.

So my call is Oregon drives and scores late to win because OSU’s offense didn’t score enough points with its red zone opportunities to put the Ducks away.

Game theory from subscriber Greg O. of Lafayette Hill, PA

Pick: Ohio State 23, Oregon 21

When Doug reached out asking if I was interested in writing a Game Theory, my mind went directly to Oregon. It was late September and Oregon was coming off their emotional win over USC. Sure, their superstar QB took a devastating hit, but there was no reason that this wouldn’t still be the game of the year.

Then UCLA beat Oregon, Julian Sayin suffered a season-ending injury, Illinois handed Oregon its third loss of the campaign, the Ducks sidelined Dante Moore for the season, and Oregon turned into West Coast Georgia on the streets. All of this was then capped off by USC embarrassing Ohio State last weekend on the same field which started this merry-go-round of chaos. This game is still as big as expected (and maybe bigger than before!), but for many different reasons. This Saturday will be two backup quarterbacks battling in something neither team is accustomed to: a proper college football Anxiety Bowl.

This is the first matchup between these programs since THAT Rose Bowl and I have no doubt that Dan Lanning will be doing everything in his power to cut a Ducks vs. Them video which rivals any production Oregon has ever put out. The Ducks will want to end Ohio State’s season, and I fully expect there to be fire and brimstone before the game. Personally, I’m hoping the Shoe has some juice on Saturday afternoon after really not having much juice yet this season (my season tickets are in 28C, come say what’s up to your boy if you’re around).

Offense

Once the game kicks off I fear we’re in for a bit of a slog fest, at least at the start. Ohio State will come out wanting to establish the run. Coming into the season, I was worried what the Oregon defensive line would do to the Ohio State offensive line. As mentioned throughout the week on The Bill and Doug Show, Ohio State’s offensive line is best when run blocking. Ryan Day and Arthur Smith will look to take advantage of that early. Isaiah West does so and punches in a score.

For as frustrating a game this past Saturday was, I left the game fairly positive about Luke Fahey (all things considered). There were signs that this could turn into something fruitful. After establishing the run, attention turns to No. 4. For the first time in several weeks, Jeremiah Smith is no longer the Heisman betting favorite. That fuels JJ to grab this team by the scruff of their neck and drag them to success this week. Somewhere in the range of 12 catches for 128 yards and one touchdown, with that touchdown being a long catch-and-run over the middle of the field.

The offense however isn’t completely fixed. Red zone issues rear their head again and the Buckeyes have to settle for field goals throughout the game. Connor Hawkins has confidence after his four field goal performance last week, and that factors into Ryan Day’s decision making.

Defense

The defense gets up off the mat this weekend after a questionable effort last week, but is also aided by a sight for sore defensive eyes: Dylan Raiola. The one-time Ohio State commit makes his second career start in Ohio Stadium this weekend and is coming off a 300-yard passing performance. Oregon will look to take advantage early and start fast. Overall, it’s an up-and-down game for Ohio State’s defense. The defensive line fails to get pressure (again) which leads to Raiola gaining confidence throughout the game, then making plays once Ohio State has to start bringing additional pressure. Oregon plays freed up after the Northwestern game gave them some life again, but Ohio State plays with the pressure of what looms if they lose. Because of that, mental errors and hero ball creep in from time to time and the Ducks take advantage.

Game Flow

Oregon wins the toss and elects to receive the ball in the first half. It’s clear that Lanning wants to be the aggressor from the jump. Oregon marches down the field and gets on the board first with a Dakorien Moore touchdown. In Lanning fashion, the Ducks line up for two and get it, 8-0. Ohio State responds on the back of the rushing game. Isaiah West punches in a score and it’s 8-7 at the end of the first quarter. Late in the second quarter Oregon goes up 15-7, but leaves Ohio State enough time for their patented two-minute drill. It looks a little clanky with Luke Fahey, and the offense does enough to get into field goal range. We go into halftime with the score of 15-10.

Ohio State gets the ball to start the second half and once again the drive fizzles out in the red zone. Day settles for the field goal to cut the score to 15-13. Teams trade punts back and forth before Jeremiah Smith catches a slant over the middle of the field and houses it from distance. The Bucks take a 20-15 lead going into the fourth quarter. That lead holds until the Ducks put together a drive late in the fourth quarter, capped off by a Raiola scamper. Oregon lines up to go for two, but the Bucks stop it this time. 21-20 Oregon, with under five minutes to go.

Ryan Day has the chance to right his wrongs from last week with a late-game tempo dive. The Buckeyes dink and dunk down the field, but yet again fizzle out in the red zone. Connor Hawkins is called upon yet again and gets his signature Ohio State moment with a 36-yard game-winning field goal in the dying moments of the game. 23-21, the Buckeyes survive and advance.

I want to thank Bill and Doug for the opportunity to be a small part of their site! There is no one doing it better on the Ohio State beat and I am grateful for their coverage of the team as well as the community they have created. As a once-aspiring sportswriter, this was a thrill. See you all Saturday in the Shoe!

(Editor’s note: If this game theory hits, what an all-timer it’ll be in the Shoe)

Game theory from Doug

Pick: Ohio State 26, Oregon 18

I’m not sure that Jay Timmons would have made an earlier tackle on both USC explosive plays last week if he had been on the field … but he might have. I’m not banking this pick only on Timmons’ return, but we can’t underestimate how vital he is to the Buckeyes, especially against offenses that are dangerous in space, like last week and this week. Ryan Day knows how important he is, and Timmons has been back on the practice field this week.

Timmons back and Austin Siereveld less rusty than a week ago would be huge steps forward for Ohio State. If an injured Ian Moore can’t play, and that means Siereveld at left tackle and Phillips Daniels at right tackle, I’m not sure that’s worse for Ohio State.

When these teams met in the Rose Bowl two years ago, freshman Jeremiah Smith caught a ball three yards behind the line of scrimmage and turned it into a 45-yard touchdown on the first drive. On the fifth drive, he caught a play-action deep shot for a 43-yard score. I hope the Buckeyes flipped on that game this week for a reminder of how explosive this offense can be.

Ryan Day is desperate for that explosion to return, and I think it will … enough. Give me a short throw to Smith early that he takes and turns into a big score (like USC last week on the second play) and give me a deep shot to, not Smith, but a freshman in the second quarter. Ohio State attacks Oregon’s weak link in the secondary and gets Chris Henry Jr. free for a deep ball touchdown and his most important play as a Buckeye.

Defensively, Matt Patricia, the $3.7 million man, has to outscheme a backup QB in Dylan Raiola and a new play-caller in Jay Johnson who was fired midseason by Wyoming last year because his offense stunk. That’s NFL vs. Mountain West. Dominate that matchup, Matty P.

I don’t anticipate him being overly aggressive. Dropping in zone, letting Raiola make mistakes and having defenders drive on throws they can have their eyes on seems like a plan. Give me at least two Raiola turnovers between picks and fumbles. And I think Patricia won’t over-blitz, but should have two or three well-times calls, like Jaylen McClain’s fourth-down blitz against Indiana that forced a fumble, that create memorable plays.

I think Ohio State’s in control but not dominant most of the game. I can see Oregon having a chance for a tying score at the end, and the Ohio State defense doing something it rarely does … standing up and making a big stop with a big game on the line.

Maybe that’ll be because the OSU defense, embarrassed by last week, is at its best. Maybe it’ll be because the Oregon offense isn’t that great. Or maybe it’ll be because Ohio State just doesn’t lose two in a row in the regular season.