COLUMBUS — It’s Week 3 of game theories, as Bill and I share our projections about how the Ohio State game will unfold, with a subscriber joining us each week to do the same.
I thought the Week 2 theories were pretty good, but what else would any of us expect from a group of dedicated, educated ball knowers?
Let’s get to theorizing on Ohio State vs. Kent State.
Game theory from Bill
Pick: Ohio State 59, Kent State 0
Ohio State lost a Week 2 nonconference game to a Power 4 opponent in 2014 and then came back the next week and beat Kent State 66-0. Feels like we're in a similar spot here.
OSU's loss back then to Virginia Tech and its loss last week to Texas aren't the same thing, but both caused the Buckeyes to take hard looks at everything, decide the best course of action moving forward, and then start implementing that plan against an overmatched MAC opponent.
You don't get kudos for starting fast against a MAC opponent, but I think the Buckeyes come out firing here. Run the ball, sure. But this game should be, and I think will be, about getting Julian Sayin into a throwing rhythm with every receiver besides Jeremiah Smith. Get Smith his few touches, get him in the end zone, and then get him out of the game so that Sayin can throw to Devin McCuin, Brandon Inniss, Chris Henry Jr., Brock Boyd and Phillip Bell as much as he'd like.
I'd go big to Smith on the first play of the game if possible and then let the other guys roll from there. Sayin's rapport with the receiver room is too important to success the rest of the way, and this is the last "name your score" type of game on the schedule.
So I think we see Smith score early, along with Legend Bey — I believe Ryan Day when he says they're going to start building out the package for the freshman running back.
This is the third straight game that the Buckeye defense will see a mobile quarterback. Kent State's Dru DeShields can move some. Instead of caging him, I'd like to see Matt Patricia show us what he has available in his scheme to unleash some more pass-rush productivity. I expect whatever that plan is to involve freshman defensive end Khary Wilder playing more (and not just because Zion Grady is injured) and an unleashing of linebacker Riley Pettijohn. Those two players, though young, look like the two biggest difference-makers in the front seven.
Let them eat, starting now.
Game theory from subscriber Jeff R. from Dayton
Pick: Ohio State 59, Kent State 0
Just like after losing by one point on the road in 2024 to Oregon, I expect the program as a whole to take a long hard look at themselves this week. Ryan Day has most likely had very difficult and uncomfortable conversations with Arthur Smith, Matt Patricia, the captains, and the rest of the coaching staff. Kent State isn’t going to bring much resistance, but this is the kind of game that if there’s any sign of struggle for the Buckeyes, the angst and frustration in the Shoe will quickly become apparent. The boo birds will come out fast if they go 3-and-out in the first quarter or if Kent State scores the first touchdown.
Buckeye Nation is ticked off and will expect nothing but dominance, but it won’t be satisfied until October 17th with a victory in Bloomington.
This game will surely be the “Kid Six” game. Legend Bey, CHJ, Brock Boyd, Khary Wilder, Riley Pettijohn, and TJ Alford will start to solidify their roles as consistent contributors. I expect JJ to get his 100-plus yards and a touchdown and get shut down quickly just like against Ball State.
But Julian Sayin stays in longer than expected to get lots of reps with Legend, Henry, and Boyd. Bey will have another screen pass for a touchdown but much longer than his one in the Ball State game. Let’s say 45 yards. We will finally have the first official deep ball touchdown for CHJ as well, specifically 52 yards, from Sayin.
On defense, I’m convinced the more talented players will play, but I’m not sure how creative the formations will be, given they don’t have another matchup game until Indiana. Jay Timmons will continue to flash and will have his first interception. Pettijohn will have a sack that leads to a fumble recovery. Wilder will continue his inside dominance by pushing the Kent State center into the QB’s lap, causing a sack.
For special teams, Bey will continue his kickoff return duties, but he will learn from past mistakes and listen to Brandon Inniss to take a knee. Connor Hawkins will have the opportunity to kick a 50-yard field goal, and I’m fortunately going to predict he will make it, causing the stadium to have the biggest pop of the day.
Game theory from Doug
Pick: Ohio State 62, Kent State 0
Ohio State had five full possessions in each half against Texas. In the opener against Ball State, the Buckeyes had six possessions in each half.
With our eyes still checking the play clocks, that’s an improvement over last year. Ohio State had eight full possessions and part of a ninth against Indiana last season. The Buckeyes had just three full possessions in the second half of the loss to Miami.
The clock still matters in Week 3, and I think Arthur Smith, Julian Sayin and the Buckeyes will be eager to keep things moving. Ohio State is 58th out of 138 FBS teams in seconds per play, averaging 26. Last year, Ohio State was 135th, averaging 31.1 seconds. I agree with Bill that Sayin gets more in the flow with a little more urgency, and I expect that to continue.
My 62 points is six drives in the first half, with five touchdowns and a field goal, and six drives in the second half, with three more touchdowns and another field goal. I think Ryan Day ensures Connor Hawkins gets at least one kick in each half so the Texas miss can’t linger as his last attempt any longer.
I expect Sayin and the first-team offensive line to stay in the game through a full three quarters. The skill players can move in and out around them, but the Buckeyes won’t risk Sayin behind a backup line, and they want the starting QB throwing to everyone. I’ll say each of the top six receivers has at least two catches.
Sayin has seven 300-yard passing games among his 16 career starts, with a high of 393 yards against Wisconsin last season. This will be his first 400-yard passing game.
Defensively, I think the Buckeyes need to get a handle on who their best blitzers are. Day said he wants the defense to be more aggressive. The Buckeyes have just three sacks through two games. Let’s call a sack for Jay Timmons and a sack for Riley Pettijohn and let the rest of the pressure packages fall into place.